When placing a sports wager, bettors can choose something called a value bet when looking at a bookmaker’s odds. Below, we explain what this type of bet is and we provide some guidance on the value betting.
Value Bet of the Day
Value Bet Explained
In sports betting, bettors can choose a value bet by noticing events that have a more likely chance of happening compared to the bookmaker’s odds. Ultimately, by picking bets for value, players can get an edge over the betting sites and their odds.
However, various factors influence odds and their value. For example, team form, home vs away teams and key player injuries may impact win probability. As a result, making a bet based on value is not always straightforward.
But, when looking for value in the odds, bettors must use expected value. Expected value is when players calculate how many times they expect to win if they placed the bet over and over again. If players notice that they are more likely to win more than lose, then the expected value is positive.
Value Bet Examples
For different sports, bettors have to make different considerations before committing to a bet. Therefore, in this section, we provide some examples of how value betting works for different sports betting options.
Generally, football is a very popular betting market in sports betting and the odds can differ depending on the bookmaker. This can lead to value betting outcomes.
For example, Man City might play Liverpool in a match. In this instance, a bookmaker could have five City 2.0 odds to win. As a result, they have a 50% chance of winning the match (100/2.0 = 50%). However, if there are odds elsewhere above 2,0, such as 2.1 or 2.2, etc., then these would be considered betting value.
However, bettors must consider context also. For instance, if Man City had two or three key players out, this lowers their probability of winning.
Furthermore, tennis is another popular sports betting option where players can bet on the value of odds. Here, we provide a value example for a match involving the two top men’s tennis players, Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev.
To begin, a bookmaker may offer 1.8 odds for Djokovic to win, which would give him a 55% chance of winning. Therefore, Medvedev would be left with a 45% chance of winning the contest. Here, bettors would look for odds beyond 1.8 for a value option on Djokovic to win.
However, context is important again, particularly in tennis. For instance, if Medvedev had beaten Djokovic in their last three matches, his chances of winning could be higher than 45%. Equally, if one of the players was recovering from injury, then their chances of winning could be less than those given by the bookmaker.
In this basketball example, we look at the value of different odds if Miami Heat played the Boston Celtics.
Firstly, if bookmakers gave Miami odds of 1.9 and Boston 2.1, Miami would be the slight favourites with a 52.2% chance of winning. To find value then, players would look for any odds that provide a greater chance of Miami winning than 52.2%. For instance, if another betting site provided odds of 1.92 or 1.91, then this would still offer value on the original odds.
How do I Calculate my Bet Value?
When value betting, players can use a value bet calculator method to figure out the probability of their bet and its chances of winning. By utilising this calculation method, bettors can determine the percentage chances of their bet and its value, compared to the bookmaker’s odds.
To work out the different values, players divide the odds provided by 100 to determine the probability of a win. For example, one team may have pre-match odds of 2.15 and the other 3.20. Here, bettors can divide 100 by 2.15 = 0.465. Therefore, this team has a 46.5% chance of winning the match. In comparison, the other team would have a 31.25% chance of winning because 100 divided by 3.20 equals 0.3125.
Therefore, players can apply this method to odds to see if there is a probable chance that a team will win. When choosing bets, players can apply this calculation to different bookmakers’ odds to find the best value.
Value Bet Tips
However, if players select a bet for value, there are some value betting strategy tips to follow. Ultimately, using a few tips before committing to a wager can help to make rounded and informed decisions when sports betting.
In this section, we highlight some of the strategies bettors can use when looking for value odds.
Follow a Team
Usually, bettors who follow a specific team or player, depending on the sport, have a good inside knowledge of how they perform. Often, the fans who watch teams regularly see patterns, styles of play and trends that some bookmakers may miss. Also, they will know the top-performing players and have a good insight into tactics and gameplay. As a result, players can follow specific teams or players throughout a season to notice value odds.
Generally, by comparing different bookmakers’ odds, players can search for the best value. Also, some of the best betting sites provide better odds for specific markets. For example, one bookmaker may have good value for matchwinner markets, and another, the best selections for under/over bets. Comparing at least a few bookmakers’ odds is important to see trends in markets and to find betting value.
Stick to Sports you Know
Usually, players who bet on sports they know well help to find good value. Being familiar with terms used in certain sports, and with team players and managers helps to inform betting selections. In addition, knowing which teams are doing well in certain leagues or competitions leads to more informed decision making. In contrast, making random selections on sports that players have little knowledge about is an unhelpful value betting strategy.
Look at News and Previews
Often, doing even a little research before a match or event can make a huge difference. If bettors look at previous statistics and read some match previews, they can spot trends and patterns for teams and players. Furthermore, previews and news inform bettors and fans about key players or team developments, such as a manager or coach change. Overall, these changes can impact performance and odds in sports betting.
Before applying value bet calculator methods to odds, players can practice first to see if they can work out the probability. Ultimately, betting for value is a mathematical process using expected value compared to betting on emotion or feeling alone. As a result, applying the maths and calculations takes time to perfect.
Long term, one of the best betting strategies is to keep a betting journal or logbook. Through this, bettors can note their selections and find patterns for particular sports, teams or players across a season. Over time, players can build up a log of betting activity over multiple matches and seasons. Then, this can inform any upcoming picks.
In this section, we answer some of the most common questions about betting for value.
In sports betting, players can play this type of bet by calculating and comparing the value of the bookmaker’s odds. Ultimately, if the bettor works out that there is a better chance of a team or player winning compared to the bookmaker’s odds, they have value in their bet.
Bet of the day is when people or organisations select the best value selections from a range of sports, markets or events. Generally, these try to provide value tips for bettors when they make betting selections. However, players can also do their own research to compare bet of the day offers.
In betting, the abbreviation EV stands for Expected Value. This is when players figure out whether they would win more times than not if they placed the same bet multiple times. Often, bettors use a calculation method to figure out the EV of a wager and then they can compare the best bookmaker odds.
In soccer, this type of bet is when players try to find bookmaker odds with good value. This is not done by luck, but through some simple calculations to work out probability vs the odds provided. Also, in soccer, players can think about influencing factors that may impact the match. This includes player injuries, form or change of managers.